The Demise of "Turkmenbashi"

A very intriguing geopolitical situation is emerging in Turkmenistan after the sudden death of its leader Sapurmurat Niyazov, aged 66 of a heart attack. Niyazov, or "Turkmenbashi" (Father of all Turkmens) as he preferred to be called was perhaps one of the most bizarre and authoritarian dictators of the Post Cold War period (Kim Jong Il/ Kim Il Sung aside). Apart from the Turkmenbashi thing, The Guardian lists a range of the more extreme facets of the Turkmenbashi's personality cult, including:

• Commissioning an Ice Palace (Turkmenistan is largely desert)
• Renaming January "Turkmenbashi"
• The construction of many gold statues that rotated so that they always faced the sun
• Published his own book ("Ruhnama") that became part of the legal code
• Banned opera and ballet
• Closed all hospitals outside the capital Ashgabat

Pretty impressive, no? It will be difficult for the next leader of Turkmenisatn to top that. But who will that person be? The answer at the minute is that no one knows. Having banned all political parties and brutally repressed anything that might resemble a challenge to him, the Turkmenbashi has also failed to groom an obvious successor. The successor as stipulated under the constitution is currently under investigation and therefore ineligible. With Turkmenbashi ruling like an absolute monarch, there are fears that Turkmenistan could even collapse into civil war in his absence as there would be no one with the experience and skills to rule effectively.

But why does Turkmenistan matter? Sure, your average Turkmen might be interested in this news but why would anyone else give a rat's arse? The main answer is that Turkmenistan has the fifth largest natural gas reserves which end up in Europe via Russia. China is also interested in getting in among the action not only for energy supplies but also to reassert influence in the Central Asian region. The U.S. is also looking on with interest due to the geography as Turkmenistan borders both Iran and Afghanistan while also having a large coast with the Caspian Sea, a major oil reserve. It might be considered cynical and so 20th century to think that foreign policy (especially U.S. foreign policy) is driven by the desire for resources however it is hard to believe that such considerations will not play a major part in the coming weeks.