Saddam Dies, Will Iraq Survive?

While it had been expected for some time, the timing of the execution of Saddam Hussein this afternoon (Melbourne time) a bit sudden. Reaction from the Coalition countries has been predictably positive, with Bush even getting into the idea that this was an important milestone:

It is an important milestone on Iraq's course to becoming a democracy that can govern, sustain, and defend itself

Perhaps the effects of the Iraq Study Group report is starting to wear off on Bush. Whatever the case, I share little of the optimism displayed by Bush. Iraq still has massive problems to overcome to just stay together let alone become a model democracy and the death of Saddam I feel will do little to help the situation and could indeed make the situation a lot worse.

While undoubtedly Saddam was one to the most brutal dictators of the latter Cold War period, it looks more and more like it was only a strongman such as himself that could hold together the highly artificial state of Iraq. The tensions between the different demographic groups in Iraq have been exposed tragically since the US invasion with little hope of "putting the genie back in the bottle". The highly possible breakup of Iraq, already a rather loose three part federation, is likely to expose regional tensions, especially regarding Turkey and a possible Kurdistan. This conflict could prove an old saying about war "never believe that things can only get better".

Shifting focus slightly, I would also question the wisdom of executing Saddam rather than giving him a life sentence. To begin with, Sir Spell Cheque is against capital punishment, so of course I have problems with the execution on that fundamental level. However there is more to my opposition to the death penalty for Saddam than that. The trial was rather shifty to begin with, with judges and lawyers involved harassed and/or killed. Saddam should have been handed over to an independent international tribunal where a fair trial was much more likely. US refusal to hand Saddam over to such a tribunal leaves even less than cynical minds to wonder what motives the US had in keeping Saddam in Iraq. It surely could not have been fears of not securing a conviction over human rights abuses as, unlike with the WMDs, the evidence was overwhelming.

In his weaker moments Sir Cheque might start to think that Saddam had information that the US would prefer the world not to know. Could be a bit embarrassing. Unfortunately now we may never know. The phrase might say that we should learn history to avoid making the same mistakes, but it is hard to do when we are denied the information (i.e. history) in the first place. Was it worth the risk of creating a martyr that militant people could rally around to avoid the divulging of some embarrassing information in an international court and a slight propaganda boost in the US. Sadly only time will tell.

Eating Anything Halal Is Letting The Terrorists Win

One might consider reading publications such as Melbourne's Herald Sun as something beyond the pale for any self respecting human being. However, that would be denying the fact that the paper can provide some wonderful comic relief to a reader's otherwise deary and over-serious day. For example, take the situation that faced me on Saturday. As I eventually woke up, a fear came over me: I still needed to buy Christmas presents for my parents. These two had proven near impossible to buy for, and with under 48 hours to go, the pressure was on.

Having skipped breakfast, your writer had rushed down to the train station to head into the city in a tired, anxious and hungry state. The stress was getting to me and my iPod was stuck on a loop of Pan Sonic style "easy listening". How was I going to make my way through this? My salvation came in the form of a copy of that day's Herald Sun located on the seat of the train. (Never thought I would type that!)

I threw out the lifestyle and real estate sections, discarded the gossip columns at the back, disposed of the classifieds and tore out the jingoistic crap about Warne at the front of the paper. Within the remaining 9 pages, through all of the carefully placed puff pieces and advertising, I managed to find the reason why I still think, despite all logic, that the Herald Sun should be allowed to exist. The title grabbed me straight away, uplifting me with hope.

Unholy row at barbie

Could it be? Is this the article that will take my mind off of any serious issue that may be plaguing me and/or the world? I read on:

SOME parents are upset that an end-of-year barbecue is serving only halal meat.

Pascoe Vale North Primary School had its traditional Christmas party on Wednesday this week.

The school served only halal sausages -- slaughtered and blessed according to rules set down in the Koran -- angering some parents.

YEEESSSSS!!!!!! I had hit tabloid comedy pay dirt. It had hit all of the buttons that need to be pushed in modern tabloid journalism.

1. Something that can be used to beat up those evil Muslims with.
2. The defence of the glorious tradition of Christmas, upon which the hopes of Peace, Western Civilisation and a local horse winning the next Melbourne cup, among other things rests.
3. Evil state schools not being Christian enough (and in cahoots with the Muslims, can it get any better?)

Now sure, point 3 looks a bit stupid when you consider that the school was holding a Christmas party. And quite a few people might argue that there is no real problem for non Muslims regarding Halal food and that the parents of the Catholic daughter mentioned are probably severely overreacting out of ignorance of what Halal means, or that they had better make sure that they do not give their daughter a Cadbury brand Easter Egg next year. But that would be applying logic and reasoning to the situation thereby killing my buzz. A bit like the principal of Pascoe Vale North Primary School that the Hun managed to get a grovelling, defensive quote out of:

Principal Peter Adams said the kids really liked the sausages.

"The sausages are from a local supplier and the most delicious sausages in the world," he said.

"Given the sausages were so delicious and tasted similar to ordinary sausages, for practical reasons we thought it would be easier to serve halal sausages to everyone.

"The kids had a great time and they all enjoyed the sausages."

Mr Adams said prep students also received presents from Santa at the party.

"Pascoe Vale North Primary students, teachers and parents believe the true message of Christmas is peace, love and tolerance," he said.

"At our Christmas party we celebrate it all and we had Santa who gave presents to all the preps."

What gives, Mr Adams? Don't you know that Andrew Bolt is on a well earned holiday? Couldn't you have joined in this blatant beat up? It's not as if people would have taken you're comments as being anything but sarcastic. But no, you just had to bring me back into the depressing real world rather than the comic book escapism that the Hun was going for. Thanks a lot.

P.S. Larvatus Prodeo also comment on the story.

P.P.S. If you can't tell that this post is somewhat sarcastic, then God/Allah/Buddha/whoever have mercy on your soul, even if it is not Halal.

The Demise of "Turkmenbashi"

A very intriguing geopolitical situation is emerging in Turkmenistan after the sudden death of its leader Sapurmurat Niyazov, aged 66 of a heart attack. Niyazov, or "Turkmenbashi" (Father of all Turkmens) as he preferred to be called was perhaps one of the most bizarre and authoritarian dictators of the Post Cold War period (Kim Jong Il/ Kim Il Sung aside). Apart from the Turkmenbashi thing, The Guardian lists a range of the more extreme facets of the Turkmenbashi's personality cult, including:

• Commissioning an Ice Palace (Turkmenistan is largely desert)
• Renaming January "Turkmenbashi"
• The construction of many gold statues that rotated so that they always faced the sun
• Published his own book ("Ruhnama") that became part of the legal code
• Banned opera and ballet
• Closed all hospitals outside the capital Ashgabat

Pretty impressive, no? It will be difficult for the next leader of Turkmenisatn to top that. But who will that person be? The answer at the minute is that no one knows. Having banned all political parties and brutally repressed anything that might resemble a challenge to him, the Turkmenbashi has also failed to groom an obvious successor. The successor as stipulated under the constitution is currently under investigation and therefore ineligible. With Turkmenbashi ruling like an absolute monarch, there are fears that Turkmenistan could even collapse into civil war in his absence as there would be no one with the experience and skills to rule effectively.

But why does Turkmenistan matter? Sure, your average Turkmen might be interested in this news but why would anyone else give a rat's arse? The main answer is that Turkmenistan has the fifth largest natural gas reserves which end up in Europe via Russia. China is also interested in getting in among the action not only for energy supplies but also to reassert influence in the Central Asian region. The U.S. is also looking on with interest due to the geography as Turkmenistan borders both Iran and Afghanistan while also having a large coast with the Caspian Sea, a major oil reserve. It might be considered cynical and so 20th century to think that foreign policy (especially U.S. foreign policy) is driven by the desire for resources however it is hard to believe that such considerations will not play a major part in the coming weeks.

Bush Announces That The Sky Is Blue

A big ol' storm is sure to be brewing in the coming days in the wake of the statement of George W. Bush regarding the war in Iraq. According to The Age, Bush has somberly changed his tune of the previous three and a bit years.

"I'm not going to make predictions about what 2007 will look like in Iraq except that it's going to require difficult choices and additional sacrifices," he said, warning "the enemy is merciless and violent".

In a departure from his upbeat tone of only weeks ago, Mr Bush earlier admitted for the first time the United States was not winning in Iraq, approvingly quoting a top US general as saying: "We're not winning, we're not losing."

The remark, in an interview for the Washington Post, was a reversal from his promise that "absolutely, we're winning" before the November 7 congressional elections.

However Bush hasn't let himself be totally consumed by common sense and logic.

Asked about those comments, Mr Bush said: "I believe that we're going to win" and added that "my comments yesterday reflected the fact that we're not succeeding nearly as fast as I wanted."

"I want the enemy to understand that this is a tough task, but they can't run us out of the Middle East; that they can't intimidate America," he vowed.

Still, given the constancy of the optimism that has emanated from the White House over Iraq, any cracks in the veneer are going to be seen to be "big news". With the Congress being handed over to the Democrats in January and many from the GOP deserting him in droves, it will be interesting to see if Bush can pull a solution out of the hat which is both effective and politically agreeable. I am not optimistic and can foresee a solution formulated with the later at the forefront with the people of Iraq given token consideration.

Of course, its not just the domestic political situation that Bush has to be concerned about. One very real possibility and perhaps the most logical one is the breakup of Iraq. To begin with, the south might want to create an independent state or join in some way with Iran. Not exactly a pleasant prospect for the U.S. government. A much more difficult juggling act is likely concerning the north, were the people there are likely to call for an independent Kurdish state. Often referred to as 'History's losers', the Kurds have copped the rough end of the pineapple after being sold out by the Western allies in the WWI Peace treaties. The establishment of any Kurdish state will not only upset U.S. 'enemies' like Iran and Syria, but most of all U.S. ally Turkey, who has fought a civil war against the Kurds for decades. How the U.S. responds to independence movements could alter the history of the region for decades to come. Given the track record, I do not hold much optimism for Bush to steer the issue in the right direction.

ECL Round Of 16 Draw

Just a quick post of the draw for the Round Of 16 in the European Champions League. My predictions of teams to go through in bold.

Porto - Chelsea
Celtic - AC Milan
PSV - Arsenal
Lille - Manchester United
Roma - Lyon
Barcelona - Liverpool
Real Madrid - Bayern Munich
Internazionale - Valencia

First leg starts 20th of Feb., 2007

An Interesting New Tactic In Test Match Cricket

Today's Musical Selection: My Space by Chicks On Speed
From the Chicks On Speed Myspace site

Now despite Sir Spell Cheque being in his twenties, he cannot help but feel decidedly old fashioned. He remembers a time not long ago when in test match cricket, players tended to be selected on the basis of talent, skills and a general impression that they knew what the fuck to do on a cricket field.

In recent times though a new fashion has emerged. Spurred on by one day cricket, a new idea of what was required of one representing their country came to the fore. The all rounder was prized above all, with all of he major teams trying to develop players that could bat and bowl while only taking up one position in the team lineup. Many cricketing purists gave little concern to the goings on of a game derided as 'hit and giggle'. However even the test arena was soon to be invaded by the all rounder.

At the beginning it seemed to work well with the introduction of wicketkeepers who could bat. But soon enough the fashion extended to players who could bat and bowl a few overs (and even keep most deliveries on the pitch) and then bowlers who could bat a bit (although usually not much more than 20 runs at a time, and often around 19 runs less).

The fashion reached its zenith however when for the 2nd test of the current Ashes series Ashley Giles was selected despite all evidence of incompetence displayed in the 1st test of the series. Unsurprisingly, Giles then proceeded to show how much the desire for all rounders had gotten out of hand by displaying all round inability to bowl (1/103 & 1/46), bat (27* & 0) or indeed field (dropping Ponting when he was in the 40s: Ponting's final score 142 = around 100 runs dropped).

Fortunately people started to rail against this manifest stupidity. And finally after all the evidence that he was the only Englishman who could bowl spin, Monty Panesar was selected for the 3rd test. And guess what. At tea on day one, Australia were 6/184 with Panesar on 3/69. Those three wickets already put Panesar equal with Giles on wickets, with a shirtload less runs conceded to boot. The reasons for Giles are likely to remain a mystery for eons to come.

Although far less baffling than the mystery of how Andrew Symonds gets selected for the Australian test team.

UPDATE: Panesar now 4/78 from 18 overs. Better than Giles (who played two tests) in less than a day.

UPDATE 2: Australia 1st innings all out for 244. Panesar 5/92 off 24 overs. According to the boys in the Channel 9 commentary team the 3rd best figures by an English bowler at the WACA. Says it all really.

ALP Shocked That Doing The Exact Same Thing As Last Time Causes The Exact Same Result As Last Time (Clever Lot Aren't They!)

Today's Musical Selection: Friends by De La Soul
From the Mission Impossible Album

Poor little Bracksy!

After the shenanigans of the 2004 federal election that saw Packer Family First sail into the Senate on the back of ALP preferences, despite wining only 1.88% of first preferences, the ALP are in shock after the DLP managed to get two seats in the reformed Victorian Upper House on the back of ALP preferences despite getting around 2% of first preferences and requiring a higher quota than Packer Family First did to win their federal Senate seat. The poor dears! Someone get them a nice cup of tea and somewhere to put their feet up until they can get their heads around all this.

OR

Tell them to get fucked! Why should anyone be feeling sorry (or even shocked) that the ALP has shot themselves in the foot by causing the election of two (count them, two) DLP members by giving them preferences over other parties such as the Greens who might actually be somewhat close to (or indeed anywhere near) the ALP in terms of policy outlook and political ideology. But I hear you say "why would they do that"? Just because the ALP reformed the Upper House themselves AND the vast majority of their voters and members would have preferred the Greens to the DLP (or the Country Alliance who were also preferenced ahead of the Greens in some UH electorates) AND the Greens were likely to be in favour of quite a lot of the policies of the ALP AND that they have now revived a hated political enemy that had been pronounced dead back in the 1970s you expect them to somehow pick the shinny new Ferrari over "what's in the box"? Dear God, take a look at yourself, will you.

That sort of thing would mean that the Victorian ALP would have to base there preference deals around such ideas as principles and representing the will of their supporters and other crap like that. You think that fits in with this thing called politics? No, you have got to try to win seats by screwing over parties (in these two cases, The Greens) by denying them preferences even though most ALP voters probably wouldn't vote for FF or the DLP if their lives depended on it.

Now, you might be thinking that Sir Spell Cheque is just a cynical old crackpot who voted for The Greens and is pissed off that they didn't win as many seats as hoped. Well you would be wrong on one count: Sir Spell Cheque is actually rather young. But as for being cynical, Sir Spell Cheque has managed to gain exclusive access to an audio tape of the ALP sub committee for preference deals discussing how to preference in the (then) upcoming election. Read the transcript below and judge for yourselves.

ALP Guy 1: OK guys, we've got another election coming up on the 25th on November.
ALP Guys 2 & 3: Oh gees, not again!
ALP Guy 4: Yeah I know, they are a pain in the arse!
ALP Guy 1: Settle down you lot, we've got work to do.
ALP Guy 2: What, we've got to make up some policies?
ALP Guy 1: *Chokes on his biscuit* Shit no! What the hell gave you the idea that the ALP was about policies? ALP Guy 5, take ALP Guy 2 down to the disciplinary committee and tell them that he's to stay there until after the next federal election.
ALP Guy 5: Sure thing ALP Guy 1. Come on ALP Guy 2, if you go quietly we might let you back out in time to have a go for the 2010 election.
*ALP Guys 2 & 5 leave for downstairs*
ALP Guy 4: Now that that pinko has left, can I ask why are we here?
ALP Guy 1: We've got to decide who we're going to preference in the UP for the election.
ALP Guy 3: Don't you think we should ask the members via a vote?
ALP Guy 1: I can call ALP Guy 5 back up here to sort you out as well, ALP Guy 3!
ALP Guy 3: Comment withdrawn.
ALP Guy 4: I think that we should try to win as many seats for ourselves, no matter how unprincipled we have to be.
ALP Guy 1: Now that's the spirit! Listen to him ALP Guy 3, you could learn alot from him.
ALP Guy 3: So..... we should preference The Greens?
ALP Guy 1: Of course not. They have a decent chance of winning a seat. What we have to do is preference some nutbag party that has no chance.
ALP Guy 4: Like with Family First in the 2004 election.
ALP Guy 1: Yeah!
ALP Guy 3: But didn't that one come back to bite us on the arse?
ALP Guy 1: Yeah.... but that was a one off.
ALP Guy 4: So how do we prevent that this time?
ALP Guy 1: Easy, we just start really laying into The Greens despite them being the party closest to us.
ALP Guy 3: But what if they still look like doing well?
ALP Guy 1: Then we'll put out some story about them preferencing the Liberals over us.
ALP Guy 4: But they would never do that.
ALP Guy 1: Well duh. But what else could we use to appeal to people thinking of voting for The Greens? You know that policy's out.
ALP Guys 3 & 4: Yeah, fair enough.
ALP Guy 1: That's the way fellas. So we're agreed then? Preference the DLP ahead of The Greens?
ALP Guy 3: Yeah, the DLP would never win a seat.
ALP Guy 4: Yeah they're no hopers.
ALP Guy 1: Excellent. Now that that's sorted, I need you two to send this press release to the Herald Sun.
ALP Guy 4: What's it about?
ALP Guy 1: Nothing much. Just some bullshit about how Bob Brown will come around to your house to force your children to take homosexual heroin while raping kittens.
ALP Guy 3: Thank God! I thought it was a Public Transport policy.
ALP Guy 1: *On mobile phone*ALP Guy 5, can you come back up here ASAP?

P.S. Urban Creature & AnonymousLefty have some discussion on how to change the situation.

FIFA Allocates Places For The 2010 World Cup

Mere months after the rather dull 2006 edition of the World Cup concluded in Germany, FIFA has already began the process of allocating places for the 2010 edition. In perhaps what is one of the most controversial and politicised functions of FIFA, the 31 remaining spots for the final tournament are allocated by continent. (The 32nd spot is for the hosts, in this case South Africa, who automatically qualify).

According to reports, the spots for 2010 will be allocated as such:

• UEFA (Europe): 13
• CAF (Africa): 5
• AFC (Asia): 4.5
  
• OFC (Oceania): 0.5
  
• CONCACAF (North & Central America): 3.5
• CONMEBOL (South America): 4.5

The most remarkable thing about these allocations is that they are unchanged from the 2006 edition. The only differences are that the playoffs change from AFC v CONCACAF & CONMEBOL v OFC to the more logical CONMEBOL v CONCACAF, while the winner of the 2008 OFC Nations Cup winner will qualify for the final group stage of the AFC qualification tournament.

Implied in these allocations is the rise in strength of the emerging confederations. While in theory places are allocated in such a way as to try to get the best teams in the world in the final tournament, the prestige (and perhaps not unsubstantial amounts of money at stake) for mealy qualifying for the World Cup finals means that there is some very intense competition off the field. Due to the strong performances of European teams in 2006, many expected to see their allocation increased. The fact that this has not happened demonstrates an increased willingness to stand up against the old powers of UEFA and CONMEBOL.

Not all confederations rely on nobility and footballing prowess to gain a good deal however. The allocation of 3.5 spots for CONCACAF, in the context of their team's relatively poor performances in World Cup finals has rankled many, especially Europeans who feel that they are bearing the costs of globalising participation the the World Cup. Many would suggest that there is only one reason for such generosity: The U.S. and the potential goldmine it represents. While cynical, it is also probably realistic. However as noted before, the nature of this process is highly political. Students of politics might remember that politics is about the allocation of power and resources. In this game, the CONCACAF is the Pelé of the backroom deal.

Football Manager 2007 Arrives To Give Me An Excuse To Discuss Electronic Gaming Censorship

Today's Musical Selection: Sexy by Car5
From the Girlmonster Album

Glorious news arrived in Sir Spell Cheque's bunker last month with the release last month of the latest in the Championship/Football Manager games series, Football Manager 2007 from SI Games. Apart from giving football fans around the world such as yours truly the opportunity to prove that they could do a better job than the managers of their favourite clubs, it is also a way to educate oneself about world football via immersion. The most impressive evidence of the effects of the CM/FM series in my opinion has to be the fact that it has been discussed in an academic journal.

Garry Crawford in his article The Cult of Champ Man uses the example of the CM/FM series to show how electronic gaming help to create community and fuel social interaction, whether virtual or traditional. In many ways this goes against the dystopian view of information technologies which hold so much influence in Australian society and regulation, despite often having little relationship with reality. Crawford's arguments of the social aspects of electronic gaming, expressed via analysis of the CM/FM series, contrast strongly with the dystopian stereotype of the 'loner' gamer which in extreme cases may lead to disorders such as Hikikomori.

Departing from Crawford, social isolation is not the only complaint of the dystopians. Perhaps the most troubling is the idea that players of violent electronic games will themselves turn violent. Apart from the very simplistic view of how people consume media, it also leads to simplistic solutions. In Australia, this has meant that electronic games that are freely available overseas are banned due to their content. The form of censorship employed in Australia is further insulting due to the method used to censor these electronic games. The Australian classification system for electronic games is based on the increasingly false premise that mostly children play electronic games and does not have a R18+ rating. Therefore, electronic games which fail to receive a MA15+ rating are unable to gain a classification and therefore cannot be sold in Australia. This is a blatant double standard given that movies such as Sin City and Kill Bill are able to be publicly shown in cinemas and sold on DVD to adults. (While Sir Spell Cheque thinks that Sin City was pretty light on for plot, the violence did leave him a bit fucked up!)

One hopes that in the near future a more mature approach to such issues takes hold in Australia and electronic gamers are given the same level of respect as other media consumers, especially since these are often the same people! Unfortunately one does not hold out much hope due to the increasingly conservative views held by the government and its supporters regarding censorship. The influence of such views is dangerous due to its ability to chip away at the freedom to free expression in politics by undermining it for entertainment purposes. The strength of the view that people, especially children, are input devices for information good or bad seems to hold for other policy areas such as history education, where the government seems to hope that children will uncritically internalise particular historical 'facts' in a nationalistic spirit whit out asking uncomfortable questions.

I notice that I have rather diverted from the stated topic, but since it's my blog I'll let myself off of the hook :). Oh well, at least I can concentrate on getting Melbourne Victory into the ACL on FM2007. And whether virtually of in real life I reckon I can still do better than Ernie Merrick! (OK, maybe not, but certainly I'd kick Frank Farina's arse!)

P.S. Some good resources on the issue of censorship in general in Australia can be found here (Warning: Some material may not pass prudish filters!)

In the beginning...(Good use of cliché, no?)

Hello Dear Reader,

Although Sir SpellCheque is not a pessimist, he sill realises that it is highly likely that no one will have read this debut post before reading any other posts on this blog. Therefore, it feels best to use this post as an introduction to why Sir SpellCheque exists and what this blog is likely to be rambling on about.

Sir SpellCheque (and the puppet master who controls this identity) likes to think of himself as a complex formula of a man who can easily adapt himself to even the most socially and intellectually taxing situations at the drop of a hat. Unfortunately for all concerned, the reality is far different. Sir SpellCheque is in fact a cut price version 1.0 humanoid with various uncooperative addons which form a multitude of clashing results.

One of these contradictions was despite being relatively good with technology, I was actually apathetic with the idea of blogging. It seemed pedantic and shallow, and besides only a few famous or important people seemed worthy of this shrine to individualism. However, a long and uncoordinated search displayed clearly that the barrier to entry was rather lower than anticipated. One didn't need to be rich, or a journalist, or even a human being to force one's opinions down an innocent web surfer's throat. It soon became clear that I was way, way behind the times, my misinformed impressions of blogging and blissful ignorance was putting me on par with luddites, dystopians and Tasmanians. The need to get with the times was urgent.

And so we reach the reason for being for this blog. Sir SpellCheque has noticed and read quite a few blogs and like a drunk at Crown milling around the Blackjack tables reckons that any old mug, no matter how disastrously unqualified, can give it a go with no potential downsides whatsoever. With this Sir SpellCheque jumps into the unknown with a agnostic prayer for all the innocent bytes and storage space at Google where this blog is hosted. May a supernatural power exist to save their souls.