Bush Announces That The Sky Is Blue

A big ol' storm is sure to be brewing in the coming days in the wake of the statement of George W. Bush regarding the war in Iraq. According to The Age, Bush has somberly changed his tune of the previous three and a bit years.

"I'm not going to make predictions about what 2007 will look like in Iraq except that it's going to require difficult choices and additional sacrifices," he said, warning "the enemy is merciless and violent".

In a departure from his upbeat tone of only weeks ago, Mr Bush earlier admitted for the first time the United States was not winning in Iraq, approvingly quoting a top US general as saying: "We're not winning, we're not losing."

The remark, in an interview for the Washington Post, was a reversal from his promise that "absolutely, we're winning" before the November 7 congressional elections.

However Bush hasn't let himself be totally consumed by common sense and logic.

Asked about those comments, Mr Bush said: "I believe that we're going to win" and added that "my comments yesterday reflected the fact that we're not succeeding nearly as fast as I wanted."

"I want the enemy to understand that this is a tough task, but they can't run us out of the Middle East; that they can't intimidate America," he vowed.

Still, given the constancy of the optimism that has emanated from the White House over Iraq, any cracks in the veneer are going to be seen to be "big news". With the Congress being handed over to the Democrats in January and many from the GOP deserting him in droves, it will be interesting to see if Bush can pull a solution out of the hat which is both effective and politically agreeable. I am not optimistic and can foresee a solution formulated with the later at the forefront with the people of Iraq given token consideration.

Of course, its not just the domestic political situation that Bush has to be concerned about. One very real possibility and perhaps the most logical one is the breakup of Iraq. To begin with, the south might want to create an independent state or join in some way with Iran. Not exactly a pleasant prospect for the U.S. government. A much more difficult juggling act is likely concerning the north, were the people there are likely to call for an independent Kurdish state. Often referred to as 'History's losers', the Kurds have copped the rough end of the pineapple after being sold out by the Western allies in the WWI Peace treaties. The establishment of any Kurdish state will not only upset U.S. 'enemies' like Iran and Syria, but most of all U.S. ally Turkey, who has fought a civil war against the Kurds for decades. How the U.S. responds to independence movements could alter the history of the region for decades to come. Given the track record, I do not hold much optimism for Bush to steer the issue in the right direction.